Severe thunderstorm risk to stretch from Midwest to Northeast this week

• Thunderstorms this week will rumble from the Midwest to Northeast on Monday and Tuesday before becoming more confined to the East by Wednesday.

• In the wake of the storms, much cooler and less humid air will move into the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.

• The cold front responsible for the storms and cooler air will stall in the Southeast late this week.

A concentrated area of thunderstorms from western and central South Dakota caused widespread wind damage at the start of the weekend. A second area of numerous wind reports stretched from Minnesota into western Wisconsin. While Montana and western South Dakota were west of the severe zone on Sunday, AccuWeather meteorologists accurately forecasted that parts of the Midwest would see another round of storms.

A line of thunderstorms developed in southeastern Minnesota dove southeastward through Chicago as well as central Illinois and Indiana bringing flash flooding and damaging winds.

A cold front that is a focus for the showers and thunderstorms will continue to move southeast on Monday. While a third day of storms will affect Minnesota and Wisconsin, those should be restricted to the morning in northwestern and central Minnesota.

"Minneapolis will likely have their severe storms for the Monday morning commute," mentioned Roys.

Farther to the east, thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. In addition, they may not weaken after sunset.

"The storms in Milwaukee, and Chicago will be closer to the evening commute and much of Michigan and Indiana, including Detroit and Indianapolis, will have their highest risk of severe thunderstorms during the overnight hours," explained Roys.

Like the storms on Sunday, the thunderstorms at the start of the workweek will be capable of all severe hazards. This includes destructive winds, hail, flash flooding and isolated tornadoes.

Even farther to the east, only a few spotty thunderstorms developed over the weekend. AccuWeather meteorologists are concerned for a somewhat more widespread risk of severe weather on Monday.

"Across the Northeast, thunderstorms will have plenty of heat and humidity to work with along with energy that may be left over from the storms that affect the Ohio Valley on Sunday," explained Roys.

The chance for hail and tornadoes is negligible in the Northeast, with Roys highlighting damaging winds and downpours as the main hazards. Furthermore, the cities along the coast may largely be spared from the severe weather.

"The cities on the I-95 corridor could have thunderstorms, but the suburbs to their north and west will be more likely to have potentially severe thunderstorms," noted Roys.

Cooler and drier air will arrive in the wake of the cold front on Tuesday, finally ending the threat of thunderstorms in Minnesota and Wisconsin. However, the hot and humid air and the east-advancing cold front will continue the severe thunderstorm risk farther to the south and east.

"The strongest storms will be from central Illinois to northwestern Ohio, where storms will be capable of producing flooding downpours, damaging wind gusts and hail," outlined Roys.

Outside of that zone, there will still be some risk of severe weather.

In regards to the heat, the exact timing of thunderstorms will have an impact on high temperatures. Roys mentioned that places like St. Louis; Pittsburgh and Scranton, Pennsylvania; and Albany, New York, may run a bit lower than forecast if any thunderstorms occur in those locations before the late afternoon.

The Midwest will catch a break by Wednesday as the cold front moves to the East Coast.

"The cold front moving into a very hot and very muggy air mass in the northern Tennessee Valley and into the Northeast and mid-Atlantic will lead to explosive thunderstorm development," explained Roys.

AccuWeather experts are honing in on a zone from far southern Maine to northern Maryland for the highest potential for severe weather at midweek. A large zone outside of that, stretching as far west as central and southern Missouri and as far south as South Carolina, will have some risk for severe weather on Wednesday.

"This time, the big cities from Washington, D.C. to Boston are likely to have storms during the afternoon commute or in the early evening hours, snarling travel for those driving home," said Roys.

In the wake of the front, widespread lower humidity and temperatures below the historical average will grace the Midwest, Great Lakes and interior Northeast Wednesday into Thursday. Just how far the front advances will affect the degree of air mass change along the East Coast. Even there, cooler and less humid air should arrive by Thursday night and Friday.

As is typical in the summer, the cold front will eventually slow down and stall as it moves into the Southeast. This will set up a zone of potential downpours. This could cause instances of flooding, but much of the region is also in a drought. Therefore, the rain will largely be beneficial in the grand scheme of things.

The risk of severe thunderstorms will be lower late this week, but locally gusty storms are possible. AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor this potential through the week, but the main hazard is likely to be heavy rain.